Every month, various beauty industry analysts from The NPD Group write blogs about the latest trends being seen in beauty, based on the firm’s market information and insights. Through a partnership, Beauty News will publish NPD’s blog the day it’s posted to keep you in-the-know.

This time last year the world was in lockdown and prestige beauty industry sales were in free fall. As the weather warmed, an anxious consumer sentiment was at odds with the cheerfulness of a newly blossoming spring season.

What a difference a year makes. As a new spring season emerges, it brings with it a new U.S. consumer, one that is fueled by the optimism of warming temperatures, lower case counts, and widespread vaccinations providing the promise of a return to normalcy. Vacations are being taken; family gatherings are happening; sports are allowing fans back into stadiums; and movie theatres are opening at a rapid clip. This is great news all around, but most especially for the beleaguered prestige beauty industry that depends largely on usage occasions and suffered dramatic declines in a year when such occasions all but disappeared.

So how is the industry looking different in 2021? For one, promotions are slowing down. In the first quarter of the year, around four weeks were free of retailer promotions. This is a departure from 2020 where every week in the year, except one, included a promotion. In addition, according to a recent NPD Price and Discount analysis, the percent of units sold on promotion declined within the key industry segments of skin care face, makeup face and fragrance juice. This is not to say the industry is in a trend reversal, but the industry is tempering the accelerated number of promotions.

Second, weekly data in the first quarter of the year shows the beginning of a consumer shift in product preferences. Looking at weekly sales versus a year ago, there are triple-digit gains across all categories due to the anniversary of lockdowns, but a weekly analysis versus 2019 shows interesting dynamics taking place. In fragrance, juices are beginning to perform better than home scents. Skin care is still seeing strong growth in body products, but sun is the second fastest-growing segment, driven by face sun protection products. In makeup, we are beginning to see the move from an average of 30 percent declines to now 20 percent declines versus 2019 over the last few weeks of the first quarter. This is the first time there’s been an overall shift in makeup performance, a small but significant win. More importantly, in the hair segment, there is a return to hair styling products. This is noteworthy not because it can move the needle in market growth, but because styling was the only segment to decline in the hair category in 2020 and the return to these products, as well as positive performers in other categories, is indicative of a consumer finally having the occasions to use them.

Another shift is being seen in channels. The online channel remains strong, but brick-and-mortar continues to be the critical piece of the puzzle that is key for our industry’s path to recovery. And in fact, it is shining through so far this year, posting growth in the first quarter for the skin care, fragrance, and hair categories.  But while brick-and-mortar is on the path to regaining its strength, the online channel will remain important for brands and retailers to watch as consumers will inevitably keep some of the new behavior they adopted during the pandemic – and online beauty shopping is one of them.

The U.S. consumer is resilient. They are hungry for change, and pent-up demand is a real opportunity for the beauty industry. Are we on the cusp of the Roaring 2020s? Time will tell, but while no one could have predicted a global pandemic, there is no question it set up the industry for a season of celebration once it comes through the other side. Innovation must continue across all categories – especially in makeup, a category that has lacked true innovation for some time now. This is our moment. Hope is strong right now, and it springs eternal.